Inferring Changes in Land Use in Great Britain from the Countryside Survey Datasets

Development of overall strategies for observations of the Earth system has received considerable attention in recent years. Most attention has been paid to space-based observations but of comparable importance is the wide variety of in situ observations made at the surface of the Earth and in its atmosphere and oceans. The in situ data are essential for the success of global observations and these combined efforts are critical because they represent the fundamental ability to provide the data essential for sound policy formation and planning. Neither of the two basic approaches can accomplish what is needed by itself. The global observing systems represented by GTOS (Global Terrestrial Observing System), GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System and GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) are examples of these activities, but equally important are national and regional efforts to link their initiatives. The national and regional activities of the International Long Term Ecological Research Network (ILTER), and newly proposed TIMEforGTOS (Toward Integrated Monitoring in Europe for the Global Terrestrial Observing System) and a European Long Term Socio-Environmental Research Network (EU-LTSERNET) are further evidence of this need. A recent workshop under the US-EU Scientific and Technical Co-operation Agreement also stressed the need for a network of Observatories between the US and Europe. These activities are the basis of a rich set of lessons that can be used to characterize the successes and failures of these different activities and make recommendations for future efforts. The presentation will provide an overview of the values of the combination of space-based and in situ approaches, the need to scale observations across the approaches represented, identify challenges to the in situ observational system ranging from management and lack of standards to funding, and show how “demonstration” projects are key to improving the capabilities of the global observing systems. Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 12 19 DETECTING CLIMATE CHANGE Hartmut Graßl Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie 20 INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATIONS AND SYSTEM INNOVATIONS Ken Green Professor of Environmental Innovation Management Centre for Research on Organisations, Management and Technological Change (CROMTEC), Manchester School of Management, UMIST, Manchester M60 1QD, UK Tel: + 44 161 200 3435, Fax: + 44 161 200 8787, e-mail: [email protected] Acknowledgements to: • Professor Pier Vellinga, International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change: Industrial Transformation Project (IHDP-IT) • Dr. Simon Shackley, UMIST and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research The problem of human-induced climate change is probably the greatest environmental challenge to face humanity in the next 50 years. Whils t its causes are without doubt the fossil-fuel-using profligacy of the world's richer countries over the last 100 years (especially in North America and Western Europe), solutions have to be considered at a global level; though the scale and nature of thes e solutions will have to depend on the stage of industrialisation of the country in question. Whatever the Factor changes and rates of convergence that are necessary to achieve both sustainability and economic equity in the face of climate change, there is no doubt that the solutions lie in combinations of good housekeeping with regard to energy use and, of course, technological innovation. However, such technological solutions are not likely to be sufficient on their own and their transfer to developing countries has continued to prove difficult. They have to be combined with social innovations, in lifestyles and the ways humans fulfil their needs. These technological and social innovations can be considered together in the concept of Industrial Transformation. This paper outlines the rationale for a new international research plan as part of the International Human Dimensions Project's(IHDP) Industrial Transformation Programme to provide the basis for an understanding of the types of technological and social change that is required. Industrial Transformation research seeks to understand complex society-environment interactions, identify (potential) driving forces for change, and explore development trajectories that have a significantly smaller burden on the environment on a global scale. Changes in production and consumption systems, including the incentive structures and related institutional settings, are the central object of study. Industrial Transformation research is based on the assumption that important changes in production and consumption systems will be required in order to meet the needs and aspirations of a growing world population while using environmental resources in a sustainable manner. From a social sciences perspective, the global environmental issues can be seen as problems directly related to society through the ways in which the human needs and preferences are met in the following four domains: energy, food, land and water. These domains could also be grouped as nutrition (food and water), habitation (energy, housing, working), health (human and eco-system) and communication and transport (people, resources and materials). Each of these domains draws on and impacts environmental systems and resources. So far, research has mainly looked at specific aspects of these four domains. The historic focus on production and production efficiency in the field of energy and food is an illustration. It is increasingly recognised that a better understanding of consumption processes and what drives production and consumption changes is equally important. Systems in the framework of Industrial Transformation Research are defined as a chain of interrelated economic activities aimed at providing a specific need for society (e.g. energy and food ). Such systems include: the actors (government, producers and consumers), the flow of goods and/or services they deal with (including the metabolism along the chain) and the overall physical and institutional setting in which they operate. System changes in the past have occurred as a result of scientific and technological developments that through their progressive adoption came to replace existing systems (for example, the steam engine and a later stage information technology ). System changes have also occurred as a result of technical and institutional innovation inspired by societal problems ( for example the green revolution driven by the concern about food shortages). Usually system changes are Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 13 driven by a combination of societal concerns and economic/technological opportunities. System change comes about when such concerns and opportunities are mutually reinforcing. Overall it is concluded that systems change as compared to end-of-pipe measures is something that is about longer time scales in the order of 10 to 25 years as well as being about larger geographic scales. Transformation may well start at the local level triggered by local initiatives. To survive in the end as a new way of meeting primary needs and preferences it is likely to be accepted and adopted at larger geographical scales. The paper illustrates the systems and innovations approach by examining the Food Consumption and Production System. 21 THE MONITORING OF BRITISH BREEDING BIRDS: A SUCCESS STORY FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCE? J J D Greenwood British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, IP24 2PU, UK For almost four decades the British Trust for Ornithology has monitored populations of the commoner 35-50% of species of British breeding birds. The monitoring involves surveillance of numbers, breeding output and survival rates across the whole of the United Kingdom. A formal alert system allows serious declines to be identified and brought to the attention not only of conservationists and those responsible for countryside policy but also the general public. Demographic modelling, the gathering of ancillary information and linked research programmes allow the causes of declines to be identified. The paper will present details of the operation of the programme, illustrated by examples. The system has resulted in the widespread declines in farmland birds that occurred in the last quarter of the 20th century being brought to the attention of conservation scientists, campaigners, policy-makers, politicians and the public. From this (and from the associated understanding of the causes of the declines) have stemmed policies aimed at reducing the problems and a commitment by government to halt the declines. The success of the programme rests on scientifically rigorous design and analysis, on a partners hip between volunteer birdwatchers (who do most of the fieldwork) and professional ecologists (responsible for design and analysis), and on effective interaction between scientists and policy makers. 22 CARBON NITROGEN INTERACTIONS IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS – A KEY TO DETECT AND PREDICT RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE P. Gundersen, N. Dise, W. de Vries, B. Emmett, M. Forsius, J. Kjønaas, E. Matzner, K. Nadelhoffer and A. Tietema Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute, Hoersholm Kongevej 11, DK-2970 Hoersholm, Denmark Abstract. In terrestrial ecosystems the largest pools of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are bound in soil organic matter. The fate of deposition N in forests is to large extent regulated by C availability in this soil pool. Then again C sequestration in plants and soil may be stimulated by N deposition. This interdependence of the C and N cycles is the basis for a new project on ‘Carbon – Nitrogen inTERactions in forest ecosystems’ (CNTER). In this project we will use data from several hundred study and monitoring sites, and results from long-term nitrogen addition and labelling experiments to gain new insights in C and N interactions in forest soils. Using the European monitoring data we will identify and validate key parameters and empirical relationships (indicators and transfer functions) relevant to C and N that signify changes in forest ecosystem functioning or environmental impacts. Data and process insights will be used to improve and validate dynamic models for prediction in time and space. Also impacts from forest management options will be evaluated to provide guidance for forest management to optimise environmental benefits. The major ecosystem impacts considered in the project are (1) changes in forest soil carbon storage, and (2) changes in nitrate concentrations in forest waters. In terrestrial ecosystems the largest pools of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) are bound in soil organic matter. The fate of deposition N in forests is to large extent regulated by C availability in this soil pool. Then again C sequestration in plants and soil may be stimulated by N deposition. This interdependence of the C and N cycles is the basis for a new project on ‘Carbon – Nitrogen inTERactions in forest ecosystems’ (CNTER). In this project we will use data from several hundred study and monitoring sites, and results from long-term nitrogen addition and labelling experiments to gain new insights in C and N interactions in forest soils. Using the European monitoring data we will identify and validate key parameters and empirical relationships (indicators and transfer functions) relevant to C and N that signify changes in forest ecosystem functioning or environmental impacts. Data and process insights will be used to improve and validate dynamic models for prediction in time and space. Also impacts from forest management options will be evaluated to provide guidance for forest management to optimise environmental benefits. The major ecosystem impacts considered in the project are (1) changes in forest soil carbon storage, and (2) changes in nitrate concentrations in forest waters. Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 14 The data sources are the European monitoring networks under UN-ECE: ICP Forest Level II (plotscale) and the ICP Integrated Monitoring (catchment-scale) as well as literature compilations of element budgets (link to presentation by Dise et al.) and decomposition studies in forests. Also a number of regional and national surveys are available to the project. The experiments are continuations of the European NITREX experiments and similar experiments in N. America. Based on analyses of parts of the datasets we found some promising results: Strong relationships between nitrate leaching (or soil water concentrations) and the C/N ratio of the forest floor, whereas there were no relations to mineral soil C/N ratios. A quantitative separation of N-limited and N-saturated forest ecosystems by their flux and concentration characteristics. By combining knowledge on the fate of N from experiments and N budgets from monitoring an upper estimate of C-sequestration in forest soils in Europe was calculated as well as a preliminary spatial image of C-sequestration in Europe. In the paper we will show our first results from CNTER refining and validating the empirical relationships and calculations. Further we will discuss the value of having a combination of monitoring programs and ecosystem manipulation experiments. 23 QUANTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF FORESTRY PRACTICES ON THE RECOVERY OF UPLAND STREAMS FROM ACIDIFICATION R. Harriman, A.W. Watt, A.E.G. Christie, D.W. Moore, A. McCartney and E. Taylor Freshwater Fisheries Laboratory, Pitlochry, Perthshire, Scotland. PH 16 5LB Tel.: 01796 472060 Email: [email protected] During the early 1970,s when the UK emissions of SO2 were at their peak, numerous investigations were instigated to assess the impact of commercial forestry practices on surface water acidification and its ecological consequences (eg, Harriman et al, 1982). By intercepting greater quantities if acidic pollutants, the loading of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) compounds to upland catchments was shown to increase as a function of forest age and cover in each catchment. With the significant decline in S deposition during the past two decades concerns were raised that recovery may be delayed in forested catchments due to the grreater pool of accumulated S and slower release rates. In this paper we present long-term data for a series of acidified upland streams in central Scotland which characterise the chemical responses associated with forest growth, clearfelling and subsequent planting during a period of significant reduction in S deposition. The pattern of S deposition in the area shows a non linear decline with the largest S reduction recorded in the early 1980’s, followed by a slow decline in the following decade and thereafter declining at a greater rate in recent years. For all streams, sulphate concentration showed a significant and more linear decline than for deposition. The greatest decline was in the felled catchment which showed a near 50% greater decline than catchments with moorland or young, developing forests. A similar pattern was found for chloride concentrations which reflected the reduced interception of sea-salt aerosols following clearfelling. Alkalinity and pH increased more in the felled catchment than in moorland or young forest catchments while the largest reduction in labile aluminium was observed in the felled catchment. The pattern of nitrate change was more complex especially in the felled catchment where large increases in nitrate concentration after the felling were followed by significant reductions during the last five years as the young plantation becomes established. In aggrading forest (25yr) catchment nitrate concentrations initially declined then increased during the early 1990’s followed by another fall during the past five years. Over the 25 year sampling period Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) increased significantly at both forest and moorland sites which may explain the increase in UV-absorbance and the concentration of organically complexed forms of aluminium. The implications for forest management are discussed in the context of long-term changes in Critical Load exceedance and biological recovery. Reference: Harriman R. & Morrison B.R.S. (1982) Ecology of streams draining forested and nonforested catchments in an area of central Scotland subject to acid precipitation. Hydrobiologia 88, 251-263 Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 15 24 RESPONSES OF APHIDS TO TEMPERATURE CHANGE Richard Harrington and Jon Pickup Division of Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, IACR Rothamsted, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, AL5 2JQ, UK Scottish Agricultural Science Agency, 82 Craigs Road, Edinburgh, EH12 8NJ, UK Aphids are one of the insect groups most sensitive to changes in temperature because of their very short generation times and low developmental thresholds. A long term monitoring network using 12.2 metre tall suction traps was established in the UK in 1964. Sixteen traps are now operated in the UK. Similar traps are operated throughout Europe and co-ordinated through the EU Thematic Network `EXAMINE'. This paper deals only with results from the UK but the wider network will increase the scope of such analyses in future. Aphid abundance and migration phenology are influenced by winter temperature. More aphids are trapped in spring and early summer after mild than after severe winters, and migrations are advanced in time with increases in winter temperature. Relationships are strongest for aphids which pass the winter largely in the active stage, as opposed to the egg stage, at the location concerned; active stages are considerably less tolerant of low temperature than are eggs, but can develop and reproduce in warm spells during the winter. Over the 36 years of trap operation in the UK, trends towards earlier migrations, that are compatible with the expected impacts of climate change, are detectable. Life-cycle type itself can be influenced by winter temperature. Some aphids have clones which produce winter eggs as well as clones which do not. In these cases the proportion of aphids fly ing in autumn that are from clones that do not produce eggs increases with the temperature of the previous winter. These empirical relationships between aphid and temperature data occur despite effects of other meteorological variables and other global change drivers on the aphids and on other trophic levels with which they interact. It is concluded that the pest potential of aphids is likely to increase as winter temperature increases in the UK. 25 IS AUSTRALIA SUSTAINABLE? AGRICULTURE, LAND USE CHANGE AND IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY: SCIENCE AND SOCIETY IN A POST-MODERN WORLD. Graham Harris CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra ACT In Australia the introduction of western agricultural techniques to an ancient, arid and fragile landscape has wrought havoc with soils, river health and water quality. Habitat fragmentation and replacement of the native Australian bush by western agriculture has totally altered the hydrological balance and the ecology of the landscape. Large areas of the Australian wheat and sheep zones are now threatened by dryland salinity, much unique biodiversity is threatened and landscape failure is rife. Overall the present mix of land use on the continent is not sustainable and business as usual is not an option. Water quality is proving to be an effective and sensitive monitoring tool for detecting and monitoring anthropogenic changes to a number of landscape processes. Changes in soil chemistry are rapidly reflected in declining water quality. There is also growing evidence of global change through long term changes in rainfall and stream flow patterns in parts of the continent. The situation is complicated by strong inter-annual climate variability, drought interspersed with flooding rains, linked to ENSO events in the southern hemisphere. Simultaneously rivers are dammed and flows are regulated to provide water for irrigation. All in all water quality is poor and large areas of the landscape are threatened by permanent sterilisation by salt. Much research is being centred on catchment science and landscape ecology at unprecedented scales with restoration of the natural landscape function a priority. Strong linkages between land use and water quality are providing essential data for monitoring both landscape degradation and attempts at restoration. If water quality and hydrological balances are to be restored, the original ecological function of the Australian landscape must be replaced by productive forms of vegetation and agriculture that mimics, as far as possible, the diverse functions of the native bush. This goes to the heart of what we know about landscape function and the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function. It seems that “catchment physiology” is the best way to relate anthropogenic change to water quality and hydrology, and that a non-equilibrium view of community structure and function is the most adequate for predictive purposes. Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 16 Even though ecological science can contribute to the solution to some of these problems, these are “wicked problems” that are not amenable to simple solutions even if we knew what to do. These are highly complex problems of massive spatial extent, involving science, economics, politics and society in a very complex and charged mixture. The “balkanisation” of society, with regional interests overriding national and state interests, with local community groups demanding control of decision making and with a major economic and social disjunction between the cities and regional Australia, have all led to a totally new environment in which to try to do science and to deliver solutions. Science, as a modernist project, is frequently out of its depth in this post-modern world. Agricultural management of degraded lands is essential. We must have sustainable rural communities in order to deliver sustainable land management. Ecological and agricultural science must deliver understanding and offer solutions in an environment where farmers “cannot be green if they are in the red” and in which there is a much lack of trust between social groups and institutions. At present we have few viable options to offer. Even if we did, how does science engage a fragmented and marginalised rural community? In such a variable climate, even if landscape restoration were successful, performance monitoring using hydrology and water quality would also be a major challenge Added to this problem is the growing realisation that agriculture is only one (small) part of a rural economy increasingly dependent on different values – on tourism and on other life-style choices. In this environment ensuring productive farm enterprises together with effective natural resource management and the preservation and conservation of rural lands is a highly charged and complex set of issues. The Prime Minister of Australia has recently announced a AUS$1.4B National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality to be delivered across most of the Australian wheat and sheep zone through 21 regional catchment committees over a seven year period. CSIRO has been intimately involved with the development of this new policy and the interaction has been challenging. This is a major attempt to mix science and monitoring of anthropogenic change with landscape restoration based on social and economic forces. Whether or not it succeeds, it must rank as one of the boldest attempts yet to reverse the effects of two hundred years of anthropogenic change at continental scales. It is sure to teach us much about the origins of landscape failure, the best methods of detecting and monitoring global and regional anthropogenic change, and the most effective ways to deliver solutions that are ecologically sustainable as well as socially and economically viable. 26 RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY MARINE ORGANISMS: A CENTURY OF RESEARCH IN THE WESTERN ENGLISH CHANNEL. S.J. Hawkins , A.J. Southward & M.J. Genner, Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB. The Plymouth Laboratory of the Marine Biological Association (MBA) possesses more than 100 years of records that assess changes in marine species and communities in the Western English Channel and along the coasts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and Somerset. Recording began in 1888 when the laboratory was opened, and was greatly expanded after 1919 with funding from the U.K. Government Development Commission. Quantitative time series exist for plankton, sea temperature and salinity from 1903 to 1987. Demersal fishes were assayed at intervals from 1913 to 1984, and surveys of intertidal invertebrate abundances were begun in the 1930s. Other series of shorter length, carried out from the 1920s to the 1980s, measured dissolved nutrients, phytoplankton production and infaunal benthos. Over the last century the records show marked changes in the marine ecosystem linked to fluctuations in climate. . In more recent times, other factors such as commercial fishing and eutrophication need to be taken into account as having influences on the marine ecosystem. For the area studied, eutrophication of coastal waters can be largely discounted as a cause of change, but fishing intensity is more important. Even low fishing intensity has been connected to reduced populations of cartilaginous fish such as skate and spurdog. High fishing intensity combined with climate change in the 1930s was responsible for loss of an important herring fishery off Plymouth, where herring were replaced by the warm water fish pilchard. Previously, off the southwest of Britain, historical records going back to the 15th century show that herring and pilchard abundance alternated in response to climate, but the change in the 1930s appears to be irreversible. Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 17 Particularly marked changes have been recorded in plankton and fish populations. A period of warming from 1920 to the late 1950s saw replacement of cold water species of invertebrates and fish by warmer water species. This change reversed after 1962 when sea temperatures declined for nearly twenty years. After 1980 the ecosystem gradually reverted to the warmer water type, as strongly shown in the last two years of the 20th century. These changes are not linked to the primary productivity of the ecosystem, as once supposed, but are more subtly connected to temperature change and its influence on ocean currents, possibly through competition between species. Comparable changes occurred in invertebrate communities of the intertidal zone. Fluctuations in easily quantified indicator organisms such as barnacles and limpets provide an index to overall ecosystem change which could be cheaply utilized for future monitoring. The MBA records are currently under statistical analysis and some parts of the series discontinued in the 1980s have been resumed. We are actively seeking funding to restore the complete series and continue monitoring into the 21st century. 27 CHANGES OF PHENOLOGICAL PHASES IN EUROPE FROM 1982 1998: NOAA/AVHRR NDVI DATA COMPARED TO DATA OF THE INTERNATIONAL PHENOLOGICAL GARDENS M.M. Hirschberg and A. Menzel Chair of Bioclimatology and Pollution Research, Technical University of Munich, Germany [email protected] // Fax: (+49) 8161 – 714753 Remote sensing data like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed from a space platform will be used to study the green-vegetation dynamics of several land cover types. Detecting the real start, maximum and the end of the growing period and the changes during the last decades in Europe is one aim of the investigation. Specially in Central Europe, where land coverage is highly variable and large connected areas with the same vegetation type are rare, it is important to combine ground and space observations. The International Phenological Gardens (IPG) provide a unique network of ground stations for Europe. During the last four decades genetically identical clones of trees and shrubs were observed under various climatic influences at single sites. On the other hand, satellite data show a good spatial spread but have in general a limited temporal resolution due to cloud coverage. As a result, it is often difficult to determine the actual days of onset of the different phenological events. To provide important ‘ground truth’ to the interpretation of remote sensing data the calculated trends of the different observed phases of the IPG stations will be compared with trends of a new available NOAA/AVHRR maximum NDVI land data set, produced by the NASA/GSFC, with a resolution of 8×8 km and a temporal frequency of 15 days from 1982 to 1998. We will discuss the beginning of spring and autumn and the length of the growing season in both data sets in Northern, Central and Southern Europe. 28 HUMAN IMPACT STUDIES IN SW NETHERLANDS BY MEANS OF MACROBENTHOS MONITORING: LIMITATIONS AND SOLUTIONS Herman Hummel, Wil Sistermans, Mieke Rietveld, Rinus Markusse & Ko Verschuure Centre for Estuarine and Coastal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-CEMO), Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, Korringaweg 7, 4401 NT Yerseke phone: +31-113-577484 (577300), fax: +31-113-573616 E-mail: [email protected] Because of their sessile character and relatively long life-span, benthos integrate environmental fluctuations and influences at a particular place over a relatively long time span. It makes benthos a suitable indicator for changes in environmental quality. The aim of the long-term monitoring studies on benthos at NIOO-CEMO is to obtain insight in the natural development of estuarine and coastal areas and the anthropogenic influences in those areas in order to saveguard natural resources and to allow optimal use of a system’s potentials. As most monitoring programma’s, this kind of continuous long-term assessments is perfect to detect slow and small deviations from a standard or norm: year-to-year changes may not be significant but longer series of data may reveal trends. Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 18 Since most of these monitoring studies depend in the Netherlands on restricted funding by governmental agencies, two major problems arise in the present-day evaluation and use of the monitoring data. The first problem is that the basic data sets (on species, numbers, biomass) are stored by the funding governmental agencies, yet remarkably, hardly processed and used for further analyses. Because of such, the benefit of moitoring-programmes has been strongly debated: the projects were costly, yet did not yield a proper end-product for the end-users (managers and the public in large). Modern analyses (e.g. ordination, correspondence analysis) and communication (web-page structured) techniques, allow us nowadays to analyse and visualise monitoring data in a limited time and at (relatively) limited costs. A first visualisation of a long-term (10-year) data-set showed dramatic changes in the macrobenthos species composition of the brackish lake Grevelingen without having been noticed before by the managers. Therefore, it is proposed to adjust the handling and processing of monitoring data in order to fullfil more the needs of managers and the public in large. The second problem is that coastal managers nowadays ask frequently for causal relationships related to changes in environmental quality, and thus a different type of monitoring is desirable. Information is needed on temporal and spatial distribution and dynamics of benthic populations, and moreover environmental variables have to determined. A first analysis of an available extensive database on macrobenthos monitoring shows that less then 10 % of the data can be connected to other databases with relevant environmental data. In connection with fundamental research the relation with many more environmental variables is determined. From this it became clear that beside grain size of sediments, information on shear stress, carbon and chlorophyll content of sediments is of importance to evaluate changes in benthos. Accordingly adjustment of strategic monitoring projects is proposed. 29 MONITORING GLOBAL WARMING WITH LICHENS Gregory E. Insarov and Irina D. Insarova Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Glebovskaya str., 20 B, 107258 Moscow, Russia. E-mail: [email protected] Department of Biology, Moscow State University, Vorobievy Gory, Moscow 119899, Russia Environmental monitoring involves observations and assessment of the changes in ecosystems and their components caused by anthropogenic influence. An ideal monitoring system makes it possible to quantify contemporary state of the environment and its changes. At background level (far from pollutant emission sources) terrestrial ecosystems are mainly affected by such anthropogenic factors as slow air pollution and global climate change. The methodology to detect trends in background air pollution by epiphytic lichens has been elaborated at the end of 70th. We have accomplished lichen monitoring survey in 28 nature reserves of USSR/Russia since then. Climate change due to the greenhouse effect appears to be one of the most serious global threats expected in the foreseeable future (Houghton et al., 1996). The important effects of global climate change on biota are changes in bioproductivity, biodiversity, and community structure, replacement of some species by other ones. To meet the nowadays challenge, a system to monitor climate change with lichens should be elaborated as well. The major objective of this study is to determine how the response of lichens on influence of global warming can be detected and measured. Ramon Nature Reserve (RNR) in the Central Negev Highlands, Israel has been selected for lichen monitoring to indicate background levels anticipated global climate change. There are sharp altitudinal gradients of annual precipitation and temperature in the area. These gradients are an important reasons why the RNR lies at the junction of two biogeographical and floristic zones, the Irano-Turanian and Saharo-Arabian zones. Ecosystems of such frontier areas are more sensitive to an exogenetic impacts than inland ecosystems. Epilithic lichens are suggested as biological monitors of the local consequences of anticipated global warming for RNR. The proposed methodology of such monitoring consists of a sampling scheme, including lichen measurement along transects on flat calcareous rocks, and construction of a trend detection index (TDI) which provides maximum ability to detect global climate trends in comparison with other linear indices. Coefficients to construct TDI, as well as traditional quantitative characteristics and sensitivity to climate change of 22 lichen species have been estimated in a study of lichens along an altitudinal gradient from 500 to 1000 m a.s.l. in RNR. The gradient study demonstrated that the TDI index is performed better than such traditional integrated Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 19 quantitative characteristics of community as overall cover, number of species, and Shannon-Wiener index of biodiversity. Optimization of the system to monitor climate change with epilithic lichens is made. Measuring a hundred transects in fifty plots (two transect per plot scheme) allows one to detect a climate-driven change in the epilithic lichen community corresponding to a 0.8 oC shift in annual mean temperature. Such resolution appears sufficient in view of global warming of 2.5 oC considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a realistic prediction for the end of the 21nd century. This system is based on the same methodological principles as the system of air pollution monitoring. Suggestion how monitor simultaneous influence of global warming and atmospheric pollution with lichens is made. 30 THE FUTURE OF REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES IN DETECTING ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE A.C. Janetos and A.B. Wagener World Resources Institute, 10 G St., NE, Washington, DC 20002 Tel: 202-729-7784; Fax: 202-729-7775; E-mail: [email protected] Abstract: Land cover and land use change are two of the most critical environmental issues that we should be concerned with today. Not only are land uses and land cover changing very rapidly, but they are also the main components of a host of other issues such as food security, climate change, water management, and biodiversity. Therefore, if we monitor land use change, and combine the resultant data with other data about particular ecosystem services, we can develop new ways to measure and detect environmental change on a global scale. Land cover and land use change are two of the most critical environmental issues that we should be concerned with today. Not only are land uses and land cover changing very rapidly, but they are also the main components of a host of other issues such as food security, climate change, water management, and biodiversity. Therefore, if we monitor land use change, and combine the resultant data with other data about particular ecosystem services, we can develop new ways to measure and detect environmental change on a global scale. Keeping track of global land use change with the purpose of maintaining environmental goods and services is particularly complex. In order to accomplish this task we need to know what the indicators of land use change are and how to measure them. In addition, we need to understand the capacity for monitoring and what the actual capabilities are for keeping track of land use change in developed and developing countries. Historically, most developed countries have conducted monitoring of certain ecosystems' land use in order to keep track of the goods provided from the ecosystems that have value in the market place. For example, forests have been monitored for decades to follow the trends of timber production and availability, agricultural lands have also been monitored to measure food production. Developing countries, on the other hand, rarely conduct systematic, regular monitoring because they do not have the resources and it is simply too expensive. Today, we are not merely concerned with marketable goods and services like timber and food, but are also interested in monitoring other ecosystem goods and services such as carbon storage, habitat, nutrient cycling, and water quality and quantity. The monitoring systems that exist today to measure marketable goods need to be expanded and new technologies need to be developed and incorporated into a land cover monitoring system in order to begin to monitor these ecosystem services on a global scale. The question then becomes what else needs to be done institutionally and scientifically so that new technologies can be used most effectively. Most data on land cover and land use change such as remote sensing data remain in the research domain and are expensive to access and analyze. Research costs have gone down in recent years and there has also been a broader dissemination of techniques to analyze the data. However, institutions outside the governments in the developed world are typically not able to afford the steep capital costs of modern monitoring systems. It therefore becomes the responsibility of developed countries to strengthen commitments to these countries and civil society and to provide long term support mechanisms for data access and analysis. In order to effectively monitor the new goods and services, baseline and time series data need to be established and to do more complex analyses, remo te sensing data about changes in land cover will need to be integrated with other measurable data about the system in question. Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 20 31 POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMMIGRATION, RECRUITMENT AND EMIGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN EEL, ANGUILLA ANGUILLA (L.) Dr Brian Knights & Dr Tony Bark Author to whom communications should be addressed at; Applied Ecology Research Group, University of Westminster, 115 New Cavendish Street, London W1M 8JS Tel : 0207 911 5000, ext 3668 Fax : 0207 911 5087 email: [email protected] King’s Environmental Services, King’s College London, Franklin-Wilkins Building, 150 Stamford Street, London SE1 8WA Tel : 0207 836 5454, ext 4403 Fax : 0207 848 4500 email: [email protected] The European eel is a panmictic species that is believed to breed in the Sargasso Sea in the western Atlantic. Leptocephalus larvae migrate across the Atlantic using oceanic current systems, before metamorphosing into glass eels that use selective tidal-stream transport at critical temperatures to enter freshwaters throughout Europe. Recruitment to inland stocks is then particularly dependent on temperature-induced migration of pigmented glass eels (elvers) and older immature fish. Growth rates are sensitive to mean temperature and lengths of growth seasons. Sexual differentiation may be influenced by relative population density and biomass, with males tending to dominate at higher values. Males then mature as silver eels and emigrate to sea earlier and at a smaller size than females. All life stages but the leptocephalus are exploited commercially. These life-history characteristics mean that recruitment and eel stocks are likely to be sensitive to medium and long-term large-scale trends in climate change – and that recruitment and migration patterns could be useful indicators of such trends. There is strong evidence for major declines in glass eel recruitment since the late 1970s-early 1980s and these have impacted some commercial fisheries. Anthropogenic causes have been proposed (e.g. over-fishing, pollution and loss of habitat) but evidence will be reviewed that imply that climate changes have played a much more significant role. Evidence of oceanic factors comes from correlations between immigration, recruitment and condition factors and changes in current systems in the N. Atlantic, e.g. as indicated by the position of the north wall of the Gulf Stream/N. Atlantic Current. Such widespread changes can also be related to declines in recruitment of the N. American eel (Anguilla rostrata) to N. America. North Atlantic Oscillations and environmental changes in the entrance to the Baltic and in the North Sea are also implicated in differential impacts in some fisheries, especially in Scandinavia and in southern North Sea rivers. Long term environmental cycles may be linked to commercial fishery trends, with increases in catches circa 1870-1880 and during 1955-1975 but with low catches between 1910-1935 and following peaks in the late 1970s-early1980s. Possible impacts of changes in average temperatures and lengths of growth seasons on freshwater immigration, life stages and emigration will be reviewed. Future possibilities for catch-independent monitoring of migration, growth and recruitment will be discussed and how information gained could enhance our understanding of climate change and its biological impacts on eels and related aquatic communities, both in the deep N. Atlantic, on the Continental Shelf and in freshwaters. 32 OVERVIEW OF THE MAGIC MODEL APPLICATIONS IN 1985-2000 Pavel Krám and Kevin Bishop Dept. of Environmental Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7050, SE750 07 Uppsala, Sweden, e-mail: [email protected] Dept. of Environmental Geochemistry, Czech Geological Survey, Klárov 3, 118 21 Prague 1, Czech Republic A variety of biogeochemical models were developed to analyze long-term effects of air pollution during the last two decades. MAGIC (Modeling of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments; Cosby et al. 1985, Water Resour. Res. 21: 51) is probably the most successful process oriented model at least with respect to the amount of applications and publications. Several versions of the model are available, the latest one is 7.07 (Cosby 2000, NIVA Oslo). The model uses a lumped representation of biogeochemical processes because simulating the catchment runoff chemistry may not require detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of the parameters within the catchment. MAGIC can be applied for a maximum of 140 years “hindcast” before the calibration year, and for the same time span for the future forecast. The model typically simulates annual mean composition of soil water and stream water (pH, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Aln+, H+, NH4+, NO3-, SO42-, Cl-, F-, organic acid anions) and the soil chemistry (exchangeable Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+ and adsorbed SO42-). Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 21 The objective of this paper is to review and synthesize the extensive results of 150 published MAGIC applications during the last sixteen years (86 of which were published in international peer-reviewed journals in English). MAGIC was used extensively in northwestern Europe, 38% of papers were about Scandinavia and 29% about the United Kingdom. Continental western Europe had 14% of the published applications, and North America 15%. Other regions are clearly under-represented in this respect (Asia 2%, Southern America and Eastern Europe both approximately 1%). We have registered 113 MAGIC papers with individual site applications (usually in catchment scale, especially in the UK and Norway), 39 papers with regional applications (e.g. in southern Norway, in the Adirondack Mountains, New York and in Wales) and only 3 papers with laboratory applications. MAGIC was applied using one soil layer in 111 cases. Two soil compartments, one on top of the other, were used in 30 cases. Monthly or seasonal time step was used only 4 times. Linked applications with hydrological (4) and mixing models (3) and especially with biological models (5), e.g. for evaluation of chemical impacts on fish are particularly valuable. For model confirmation, comparisons to computer simulations from other dynamic geochemical models were performed many times (most often with the SAFE and SMART models). Thirteen applications compared MAGIC simulations with diatom-based reconstructions of lake water chemistry history. Generally, validation of long-term dynamic models is problematic because of the lack of real long-term measurements. Simulations of experimental manipulations with known fluxes is therefore helpful in this respect (e.g. RAIN Project in Norway, Gårdsjön Roof in Sweden). MAGIC’s long-term hindcasts and future predictions of acidification and recovery of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have been an important source of information for policymakers. 33 ENVIRONMENTAL AND LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE MONITORING IN THE COASTAL BELT OF INDIA: STUDY BASED ON REMOTE SENSING AND GIS TOOLS R. Krishnamoorthy and S. Ramachandran Institute for Ocean Management, Post Bag No: 5327, College of Engineering Ca mpus, ANNA UNIVERSITY, Chennai 600025, India Fax: 0091-44-2352870 or 4470740 Emails: [email protected], [email protected] Of the ten bio-geographic zones of India, the coastal zone is very significant as it stretches to over 7500 km. There are 9 maritime states inhabited by about 100 million people of who are directly dependent on the coastal resources. More than 170 million population concentrated in the 100 km coastal belt. In the recent past to prepare coastal zone management plans, it was realised that the data on environmental parameters, land use and land cover changes along the coastal belt and the adjacent watershed and river basins are very important. The changes in coastal land use and land cover are having more influence on coastal environments, biodiversity, coastal ocean resources, etc. Additionally the biotic pressure on the coastal belt is more and many protected areas along the coastal ocean are facing severe environmental problems. The Department of Ocean Development has funded to carry out various national programmes such as Marine Remote Sensing Satellite Information Service (MARSIS), Coastal Zone Information System (CZIS), Critical Habitats Information System (CHIS) under the coordination/guidance of National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) and Space Applications Centre (SAC) since 1990. Both remote sensing data and GIS tools were extensively in these studies. This paper has been prepared based on the experience gained from the above programmes. Under the coastal zone mapping and monitoring programme, the land use and land cover (LUCC), brackishwater sites, mangrove and coral reef areas were mapped using multidate data of Landsat MSS, TM and IRS series. Spatial data on 1:250,000 scale were generated using MSS and IRS LISS-I sensor data and for the site-specific studies detailed scale maps i.e. 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 are prepared. The other biophysical information especially on geomorphology and shoreline changes was also derived from the interpretation of remote sensing data. Using GIS tool, the database has been created for selective “hot spot” areas along the coastal India. The non-spatial data on socio-economic, coastal water quality and biological parameters were also incorporated in the GIS database in the relevant spatial layers in order to analyse the database to assess the biotic and abiotic pressures on the coastal zone. Based on the interpretation of satellite data and GIS database analysis it was observed that the following biotic and abiotic driving forces are mainly responsible for coastal environmental change in the country. Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 22 Changes in coastal land use due to population pressure and migration of population from upland to coast due to drought are the main driving forces for resource depletion and environmental degradation. Changes in land use along the adjacent watershed are the main sources for coastal pollution. Changes in coastal land cover especially the mangrove forests are mainly due to human activities like illegal felling, aquaculture, agriculture, grazing, etc. Certain parts of the coast experience the environmental degradation due to abiotic factors like shoreline and coastal configuration changes. Especially the estuaries and creeks in the Southeast part of India are witnessed with the development sand spit formation and closing of these mouthpart leads to changes in water and soil quality in these areas. The driving forces for coastal environmental degradation is vary from the mainland coast to island coast. The impact of coastal tourism is very limited. The time series analysis were carried out to quantitatively estimate the changes in land use and land cover along the coast using multidate satellite data in conjunction with his torical data. Attempts are made to fill the data gaps for coastal LUCC modeling. Especially the high-resolution sensor data like IRS LISS-III and PAN data provides more information on coastal ecosystem status, degradation and regrowth areas and infrastructure details along the coast. The spatial data generated from remote sensing imagery are playing a vital role in implementation of coastal regulation zone and also for long-term environmental monitoring in the country. The spatial information derived from satellite data are validated by ground truth and more field information added to make them more self-explanatory. More end user utilisation workshops and awareness programmes were conducted based on the outputs derived from the analysis of satellite data and GIS database. Community based conservation and management works have been initiated in few areas along the east coast of India where the remote sensing and GIS provides vital information on environmental parameters and also the influence of various driving forces. Also the utilisation of remote sensing and GIS outputs were demonstrated to social scientists and the wider public. Recently the short-courses on ICZM for key decision-makers are initiated with funding support from DFID and British Council India. Various management issues concerning the coastal environmental degradation are being taught and discussed in the short-course programmes. This paper highlights the present scenario in India especially in the area of coastal environmental issues and the applications of remote sensing and GIS tools. 34 DETECTING ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN EUROPEAN WATERS Dr Tim Lack European Topic Centre on Water, WRc PLC, Henley Road, Medmenham, Marlow, Bucks SL7 2HD, UK The European Environment Agency (EEA) delivers timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information to policy-makers and the public for the development, implementation and assessment of sound environmental policies in the European Union and other member countries totalling around 31. Crucial to successful environmental policy and management is the detection, analysis and responses to the slow-moving, underlying, driving forces and pressures that create the current and future state of the environment. This paper describes the sources of nutrient pollution (n itrogen and phosphorus), the measures that have been taken to reduce them (largely through the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC)) and assesses how effective these measures have been. The Directive came into force in 1991 but there have been considerable delays by Member States to fully or partly transpose the Directive into their national laws and develop implementation plans. Measures have been most effective for major point sources such as urban waste water and industrial effluents, and where nutrient use has been restricted or banned e.g. phosphate in detergents. Over the last 17 years, marked changes have occurred in the proportion of the population connected to waste water treatment as well as in the waste water treatment technology involved. (Figure 1). The percentage of the population connected to tertiary treatment has increased since 1980 in all European regions. In Northern countries such as Finland and Sweden, the majority of the population was connected to sewers with waste water treatment early in the 1980s, while in many of the other countries a marked increase in the population connected to sewers has occurred over the last 10-17 years. In Detecting Environmental Change: Science and Society 17-20 July 2001 London, UK 23 Austria and Spain, the proportion of the population connected to sewers and waste water treatment has more than doubled over the last 17 years. In Spain, however, only around 50 % of the population had their waste water treated in treatment plants by 1995, some of the waste water to sewers was discharged untreated. Figure 1 Changes in waste water treatment in regions of Europe between 1980/85, 1990/94 and 1995/97. Northern Western Southern 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100